Yeah that’s why I wasn’t sure. But at the very least gambling right now feels like it’s been slapped together as a stop gap measure for testing, not as a real system they’re working hard on.
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INCORRECT - gambling implies chance and over multiple applications of chance you will go towards an average a significant amount of the time.
The amount of money you should expect to spend would be based on the average - think of this like 6 linking gear in PoE, it usually happens somewhere between 1000-1500 fusings, sometimes more sometimes less, but you almost never see the number above 3000 or below 100.
Only an idiot who wants to lose money goes into gambling without an expected payout rate.
The issue the person has here is that the payout rate is unreasonably low.
That doesn’t contradict what you replied to. The system is random. It has no streak protection of any kind. A reasonable person approaches such a system knowing that it’s perfectly possible to never roll what they want.
And only a fool would treat the calculated average of a completely random system as a guarantee, and set their expectations based on it.
The only issue the person has here is that they don’t understand what the words “random” and “average” mean, and are thereby inappropriately treating the gold they spend as a progress bar instead of viewing every individual act of rerolling and item buying as an isolated event.
Yes, possible but unlikely.
But surely a maths-literate person would be reasonable in setting their expectation on the expected payout rate? Assuming they were willing to put a statistically reasonable amount of resources in. I presume that most gamblers go in to a situation hoping to be the one that gets lucky and “breaks” that expected payout.
Yes, but you can still build up a reasonable expectation of a certain result within a certain number of rolls.
The house always wins. If you think the payout rate is “unreasonably low” then you’re looking at it from the wrong direction. It’s why I very rarely gamble (except in LE), I don’t like giving my money to someone else.
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I fundamentally do not consider any such expectation to be reasonable. I understand why other people think it’s reasonable, but I will never agree.
Random systems should be approached with the expectation that you will not get what you want out of them. Hope? Yes. Expect? Never.
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Why? If there’s a 10% of a thing happening (getting Wings of Argentus perhaps) then you would have a 90% chance of getting it in 21 rolls. Or a 95% chance of getting it in 28 rolls, would that not be a reasonable expectation?
Unless it is intentional to force rarity in gambling specifically.
That is not true. For each try the chance is reset, so it’s always 10% chance. You can do one try, ten tries or a hundred tries, you have 10% chance to get the item.
The probability of getting 1 “win” at x% in y tries = 1-(1-x)^y. So if x is 10% and y is 10 tries, the probability of getting 1 win in 10 tries = 1-(1-0.1)^10 = 1-0.9^10 = 1-0.349= 65%.
I’d say it’s 10% each try, with no change from one try to another. Each try is 10% chance, so overall it’s 10% chance. Otherwise, this would mean that after a certain amount of tries, we would be guaranteed to get the item.
It’s not though, go and Google how to work out the probability of any event in a number of tries, you’ll get the formula I gave above.
Llama is correct. You’re right that each individual roll has a 10%, but there’s a difference in a guaranteed chance and probability. If you try this 1000 times, there’s a very good chance that 100 out of those would roll as expected. But you wouldn’t know beforehand which of those 100 would be the ones you expected. The larger sample size the closer the successrate becomes to the expected chance.
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Well, that’s something I’ll have to teach to the mathematicians I have at home.
Thanks for the clarification and explanations, guys! 
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Not to me.
Play few hours in Poe, then you will know hat gambling is.
Do I need to explain probability with an example you would understand? You keep saying that you may “never” get a success, but even the most basic grasp of possibility would tell you that after infinite tries the chance of success is literally 100%.
I will go with a coin toss, you are expected to get a head within the first 10 flips 1023 times out of 1024. This doesn’t mean that it is guarenteed, but the sheer amount of tries means that only a fool DOESN’T expect to get heads(assuming the coin isn’t rigged). As a large number of tries occurs the odds of not winning a game of chance at least once approaches the chance getting hit by a meteor next tuesday.
Now apply this to LE gambling, where the average is somewhere between 1 million and 20 million gold(you would need a large sample to test this, and that is hard with the second of wait between gambles, I am guessing values to make a POINT). If I assume 20 mil at 5000 per try(ignoring refresh), that means the number of tries is 4000.
if average tries is 4000 that means that you have 50% at that, you can therefore calculate the odds per try((1-x)^4000=.5 so 4000th root .5 =1-x, or .5^(1/4000)=1-x) so we get x equal to about 0.00017, I will use this value from now on to make a point(because calculating it more accurately is silly as I am working off a lot of guesses to begin with).
Taking 0.00017 and applying it to just 10,000 tries (1-.00017)^10,000= 0.1827 or only an 18% chance of failure, it would be reasonable to expect success within the first 10,000 tries. After 20,000 tries you have only a 3% chance of failure. at 30,000 it is .6% chance, at 40,000 it is .1%
Notice how over multiple tries the chance of success gets INCREDIBLY close to 100%?
Basically you have been talking out of your ass when it comes to probability, about us not being able to set an expected payout cost and how we “may never even get it”.
The ONLY thing that is unclear is the exact odds of success per roll and of getting bases on refresh rolls.(well that and the possibility that they are using pseudorandoms, which changes the way it works entirely and instead makes the exact outcomes predictable)
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To augment your example: Last Epoch Info feel free to check the gambling simulator. It should have accounted for gambling cost of the base but not for rerolls, AFAIK.
Maths is hard, yo!
Also I think some people get hung up on the common English usage of “expectation/expected” (aka guaranteed) compared to the maths/stats usage (likely outcome).
I personally do not see the difference between the common English usage and the maths usage, you expect not to get hit by lightning next monday for example. This doesn’t mean you know the exact chance, just that you believe it to be significantly low.
Probably an unpopular opinion, but I don’t see the point of having shopkeepers, gambler or gold in this game at all. It is simply not necessary. I just bought, installed, tried and played LE since last week. I only play SSF-HC. My stash is empty on all characters. 3 characters 1 death only.
I’ve never gambled, bought anything from a shop, or used gold for anything other than respec. I honestly don’t see the reason for why the developers even feel these “features” has to be in the game. It feels arbitrary.
Stash we need - no argument there. It’s just my opinion that the shops, gold and gambler is completely and utterly unnecessary.