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Craft Fake % succes

I start the game 2 week ago i like it i love crafting in video game like path of exile (before and after harvest) and crafting in these games gets on my nerves

2 week crafting stuff with 60-80% succes 9/10 all brick just how ?

This fake number I thought I believed that I should not continue on these games.

And that craft its just for T5 affix not T6-T7 so I don’t even imagine.

I drop ~15 T6-T7 that I wanted but the 3/4 were destroyed with rune of removal and the other 60-80% Brick

It would be good to have the real % of succes instead of making believe that we can still craft because we and more or less sure


The developers have done extensive testing on this subject and have found the system is working as intended. You can read much of the debate and developer results in these two threads:


This. Mike has also talked on several occasions about how we’re psychologically inclined to weigh the failures more heavily than the successes, which gives the impression that the percentages are off when they’re actually just fine. I know there have been times when I was like “this is busted” but then I get a good run, and just have to remember that it all evens out in the end.


This topic does come up every now and then. I can super guarantee that the percentages are very accurate. If you are certain that this is not the case, please record a video of it failing to be accurate over a significant number of contiguous crafts.

If you can provide me with proof that it is not actually accurate, I will rewrite the code for it.


Thank you for your answer but I’m going to take a break I’m thinking because either I’m unlucky or it’s just wrong and I don’t want to continue farming for months to drive myself crazy I just dropped an item 2affix T5 1affix T4 I add an affix as 80% brick and its done since I started the game I can not more

I have experienced that frustration. Dropped a T6 prefix with open slot prefix 2 T4 res suffixes Instability was 12. 90% rate with guardian according to the forge, bricked it on the first attempt to add the open prefix :frowning: I think the instability calculation is possibly what is off, not the success rate. I do not record/stream due to disability.

Why would you think the Instability calculation is off? Do you just mean the displayed instability?

Either, both. The displayed could have been off or the calc displayed in the forge for 90% was off. It was kind of disappointing to see the item brick on one attempt. I think that the instability shown was what was off, but who knows.

Instability is directly related to the success chance. So, if one is calculated incorrectly, the other is adversely affected as well. As Mike said, this is very unlikely. 90% chance isn’t a guarantee. I’m sorry that happened.

I moved on but its one those chances you take. It just struck me as an odd result. I know probabilities, spent way too much of my life doing diff calcs to make systems work.

I guess the other thing that would strike me as odd with that is you stated you used a glyph of the guardian, which would completely mitigate a minor fracture (I’m not sure on the calculations, but I don’t think that a damaging fracture is possible at that instability/success rate). That would be an issue I think, but then again, I wouldn’t use a glyph of the guardian with that high of a chance, I’d use a glyph of stability personally, but I can’t say you did that.

No, I recall the glyph of stability was down to like 78% which seemed right for that amount of instability. Like I said it was really odd. The fracture why it stuck with me.

I now have a new life mission.


Neither are off, all the numbers are perfect. I’m generally pretty hesitant to make statements like this but I’ve tested it so much that I can very confidently say that the numbers are right.

Because this keeps coming up, I keep testing it. In total, I have now done a total of 500 recorded crafting tests on the live version of the game. My luck variance was -0.02%. Anything within 1% and I would call that accurate. My results were 50x more accurate than I would need to be happy with the system.

I have also done simulation testing. This uses the exact same functions as the actual crafting but instead of just doing it once, it runs each craft 1 billion times. This was accurate to a number than can only reasonably be represented with scientific notation.


Mike, Thank you for the response. I think it was either a misread on my part or just a complete fluke. I did some more crafts after that without issue. It was just that one item and it really low prob that still minor fractured. Like I said earlier I moved on and based on all prior experiences the system is working as intended.

My question then is what should a base instability be on a T6 prefix 2 -T4 suffix item? That may solve the mystery in my head.

I’m not sure what the base instability on an item like that would be off the top of my head sorry.

Just to be clear, if an item says 99% success chance, it can still get a fracture on the first try. It’s ultra rare but still possible.


Yes, I understand that. I was attempting to resolve the prob ratio in my head and it was pretty small, so it shocked me when it happened. I totally agree that 99% does not guarantee success. No risk it, no biscuit.

While I believe Mr. Weicker’s statements and applaud his participation in this thread and EHG’s communication and interaction with players in general the entire crafting system being based on RNG is just a poor design.

This is just another version of Maple Story 2 where player A can play 8 hours a day for a month and be in the same boat as player B who played 1 hour a day for 2 weeks due to bad luck.

Obviously in this scenario player A is going to eventually say no thanks and take his ball and go home.

I personally have two characters at 99 that have over 2,000 echos done on each of them and my crafting experiences on both characters have been absolutely god awful. I can go days between finding a good base that has a snowball’s chance in hell of seeing t20 and the good bases literally fracture every time on my 1st or 2nd attempt in the 85-90% success rate window.

I can level an alt and whack random trash leveling pieces with no glyphs of stability to like 55 instability without a break so ya, im sure it balances out but the manner in which it does is just absolutely deflating to alot of players.

Between the crafting being 100% luck, and the monolith’s echo progession and modifiers being RNG based I find myself playing a couple hours maybe every 3rd day at this point. At first I absolutely loved this game and was so happy to have a decent alternative to PoE but I cant spend 6 hours a day on a game and have literally, I mean absolutely nothing to show for it.

Ive rerun specific empowered timelines for days on end without getting the blessing I need and gone 3-4 day stretches without crafting any upgradeable piece of gear for a character.

The layers upon layers of RNG are ruining an outstanding game that is clearly being produced by good people who care.

I just hope that at some point the game becomes an actual game and rewards a players hard work and willingness to grind b/c as it stands now it doesnt, im sure its awesome for some folks but im “that guy” and it gets old fast.


I think this is a perception problem. You always feel unlucky when this unlikely event happens but you never get the chance to see your cumulative luck so far nor do you see how close you got to an upgrade.

The chance of you adding 5 tiers to an item (starting with 0 instability) is about (.8)^5= 32% chance. To compound on this the chance of not receiving that 32% outcome in the expected number of attempts (3) is (1-.32)^3= 31%.

I would like a display for the player to see how lucky you were to take an item from the ground and show how lucky you were to get that far. Its likely that the piece you have are in the top 5%-0.2% chance of getting and you just cant see it.


Yea, just to be clear, I’m not defending the system itself. Just the implementation of the system. This is something that we are taking very seriously and have been working on updates to the system for quite a while now. They weren’t quite ready to incorporate into this patch so we pushed them back.