And yes low rolls are garbage when you have grinded/listed 500mil+ to forge 2lp max roll hearts only for them to grab the trash affixes.
It doesn’t make sense
Most likely you don’t, since most EA players will usually be close or way over the 1k hours.
This shows that it really is about player expectations. The endgame is 300-500 corruption. Anything you get above it is a bonus and not required. Feeling like you should get the rarest items ever easily just because you’re already pushing way way way past the limit (which will probably get nerfed in time) is actually part of the problem.
Pre-1.0 only very specific builds reached even 1k. Most didn’t go above 500-600. Now that we got a few broken builds, everyone expects being able to reach 2k.
So no, you don’t need LP4 items. You’re already doing way more corruption than you should.
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I am sorry to inform you, you literally just confirmed @Ghostlight statement with what you just said.
You are already at the very top end of endgame and complaining about the top tier items not getting ultra omega tier easily/guaranteed.
It does make a lot of sense.
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You are nowhere near my numbers. Been playing this game for years. My strongest and best-equipped chars are offline because there was no other option, it was THAT long ago.
Ironically, if perfect Twisted Hearts with 2 or more LP had been dropping as readily as some people seem to think the game needs them to, I would have given up years ago and moved to a different game.
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You said that to Ghostlight, one of the oldest members of the community who was playing this game before it even had multiplayer?
Shoot Ghostlight has 2 years on me, and I tested the multiplayer beta back in 22.
how dull and deaf can you be, if I have started this topic with a video showcasing statistical analyisis of 300+ unique ring drops
those were not prophecies drops but monolith drops, most people including myself did not have 300+ unique rings drop in hundreds of hours, I think you need to specifically target those unique ring nodes in monolith
basicly a guy has proven what many are sus off, those %rarity numbers don’t mean anything
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The only thing that was proven in this thread is that people don’t understand statistics, outliers or the scientific method.
300+ unique rings is more than most people will see in a single cycle, but it’s an almost infinitely low amount compared to all drops from all players. You need a lot (and that’s really a LOT LOT) more cases for it to be statistically significant.
The guy making the video did a good job making his points in his video.
I neither replied to you nor criticized his video and conclusion, nor was my reply specifically to the video’s findings. It was targeted at another user who started to use this threat to promote his conspiracy theories of including dubious RNG manipulation tactics in the game’s code.
I’m sorry if there was any confusion.
Hello! I am the guy who made the video posted in OP and I just want to step in to say that you are right.
People have been misinterpreting my results and taking it as 100% definitive proof that “lower corruption = higher LP”, there are two things wrong with that;
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My tests were EXCLUSIVELY for prophecies, we can’t assume prophecy LP chance has the same logic as monster / boss drop LP chance. We already know the precedent for different LP chances exists by source because of Runes of Ascendance.
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As you pointed out, the sample size, while fairly sizable for a single player, is still small in the big picture. Depending on your sample size, you can expect a certain reasonable distribution of outcomes somewhere around the actual “expected” result.
For example let’s say you are trying to determine the chance of heads for different weighted coins. Say one has a 48% expected chance for heads, and the other has a 52% expected chance. You could flip the coins 20 times each and it wouldn’t be that unusual for the 52% coin to actually land fewer heads than the 48% chance.
In my case, I had 300+ datapoints for each sample, and controlled for statistically insignificant outliers (like 4LPs that can’t be accurately represented for my sample size), the fact that my 100 corruption test gave less 7% or whatever less LP than 1000 corruption does not 100% confirm that 100 corruption gives more LP than 1000 corruption. But it MIGHT indicate that 1000 corruption gives less LP bonus than expected for prophecies (or none at all).
That said, since the expected outcome of 1000 corruption is actually almost 20% higher LP than 100, the gap between the expected difference in LP between 1000 and 100 vs the actual difference was well over 20%. Given my sample size it is still possible that this was just “RNG”, however that gap is quite large relative to the expected variance given my 300+ samples per test.
TLDR; my test does not “confirm” that “lower corruption = more LP”, however it may suggest that the LP bonus from corruption either doesn’t exist for prophecies at all, or is less than stated.
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It’s possible that EHG’s intended formula to improve the chances wasn’t implemented correctly. For example, by reducing the LP chance instead of increasing it.
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Yes, I agree with you. It’s a big enough sample that it might suggest something isn’t working, but it’s also a small enough sample that it might just be RNG. It doesn’t prove things either way.
Anyway, I’m sure that if there’s something wrong with it, the devs are aware of it and working to fix it. 1.1 will have changes to factions, so we’ll just have to wait and see.
yeah some like to dictate the way we can enjoy the game.
if we play 1.000 hours and dont get the drops we are chasing these white knights will tell us that our expectations are wrong and we play the game wrongly.
everything is about player expectation, and there is nothing wrong people expecting better ways to chase desired itens.
Some expect the game to be really hard to grind, others expect it a little “softer”, and as some other things this game is creating a very polarized community. A real challenge to manage things to be appealing for both sides.
You don’t have to please both sides, though. That’s what D4 tries to do and fails. A game just has to have its own identity and players that like it will play it.
There are players that like the heavy RNG grind. There are players that don’t. There are even players that would like it much harder (like in PoE). LE doesn’t have to please them all.
This doesn’t mean that it will never change. That’s up to the devs and what type of game (and, as a result, what type of player) they want.
But you’ll never reach a point where you’ll please all players because they want opposite things. The most you can do is come up with a compromise that doesn’t appeal to either, like in D4.
yeah I guess you are right. In my mind I imagine that somewhere sometime Devs could have to make a strong commitment that will bring displeasure to one of these sides.
I may be wrong but in the current state I see them trying to please every side.
And we can also be surprised, as they did with the faction system, discussions aside if it was a success or not, they did bring a system in a effort to appeal for very distinct playerbase.
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That is true. As I said, they might change it. And maybe not even to appeal to all but just to make a statement on what they want the game to be like.
I think this is basically a spectrum that starts in D3-like drops (way too easy for most) all the way to PoE drops (way too hard for most). You can’t really appeal to both at the same time. All you can do is find a sweet spot for what you want your game to be and the players you want to appeal to.
Then again, like you rightly mentioned, they have surprised us before, so we’ll have to see if they come up with something.
Personally, for the record, I like the drop RNG in LE. It’s very reminiscent of D2 while not being quite as hard as PoE. I think factions need some balance/changes and they will in 1.1. But I’m happy with it so far.
Though I understand that others might not be.
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Sometimes Im more reactive than I should be,
might be that I think one of these sides are too entitled to dismiss any feedback concerning drop rates and all the layers of RNG we have, they automatic flag it as that its just because the player want easy or guaranteed drops when sometimes its far from that. And we miss constructive discussion around it.
Personally I like the drop RNG in LE too.
But as a player that love to play with the same build for hundreds of hours I get a bit frustrated with the min/max proccess trying to achieve some of the dream itens my build could appreciate. I just like the endless grind and process of achieving the highest possible number I could imagine. I would like the feeling / perception that I could somehow chase a 2LP boss drop more easily after hundreds of hours farming.
I dont think the current system need any major changes, but it needs adjustments, specially for CoF. Things that come to my mind are the LP chances and the process of target farming some rare uniques.
I think they took a huge step into this things with CoF prophecies but still its lacking something. Nonetheless its a great system overall and with tremendous potential to be adjusted to many things.
Yes, that happens. Mostly because most of the time people are just asking for easy drops. And also because they’re afraid that the drop rate will become too easy for them and the game less enjoyable.
On the other hand, the opposite also happens, where players that want easy loot don’t really hear the other side. It’s a human nature thing. Many people on both sides act in an entitled way. And I admit that I also do that on occasion.
I can uderstand that. But I come from D2, where RNG is even worse. Unless you trade for it (with all the downsides D2 trade has), getting all the endgame gear to drop by just playing is even harder than in LE. It’s all a matter of preference, tbh.
I find LE is in a good spot for my tastes, even when it means that I will never get those LP3-LP4 BiS items, simply because I don’t have as much time to play these days.
Gosh, an entire yeeeaaaarrrrr! You so old!!!
As in age?
You are absolutely clueless about statistics as well. There has to be a noticeable difference in drops between 100 and 1000 corruption. We are talking about a multitude of 10x at least. Your sample size does not matter. We are not talking about 4lp omnis or 4lp red rings.
You should not even see 0lp items drop in 1200+ corruption in theory.
I see, I was wrong here then. I assume nobody sane plays CoF as CoF has no scaling with corruption what so ever, prophecies forever stay at level 1 and do not get upgraded period.
You can quickly find your Lp1/lp2 (sometimes) gear but you will be forever locked out of top end/end game content, min/maxxed 3/4lp full equip and so on.
This here shows that you’re the one that has no idea how statistics work. If you have something that has a 0.001% chance to happen, a 10x improvement means that it now has a 0.01% chance to happen. So, to get any statistically valid data, you need, at least, over 10k drops.
A sample of 300 isn’t enough to show things either way, because if you pick 1k players with 300 drops each, you’ll get wildly varying results.
This is another statement that shows you really don’t understand statistics. Red ring has a 6.12% chance to roll LP1. Even if you increase it 10x, it has a 61.2% chance. Which means that every 3 rings you see one.
Even if you get that rate to 99%, you still have 1% chance to roll 0LP. Which means that, in a game with 100k players, you’ll have 1k players dropping a 0LP ring.
Which is why a low sample base is anedoctal and why you need a much larger one. We don’t even need to delve deeper into the mathematics to show this is the case.
This sample might be a clue that something is going on. Or it might be an outlier. Which is why you need a lot more drops to know either way.
While CoF (along with MG) will get changes with 1.1, CoF isn’t really for getting min/max gear. In fact, even with MG, you should very rarely get that perfect 4LP wings/red ring in a cycle. They aren’t required to reach endgame.
Perfect rare gear is a chase item, much like a double corrupt/enchanted/high quality/6-link one is in PoE or getting 2/20s in D2. Very few people should be able to get one realistically withing a 3 month period.
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