Your point 4 sorta is exactly why you run into these problems with loot based games though.
After a point all that matters is luck, if you have no crafting, you can go hours/days without any progress
In games with 100% deterministic crafting I never leave a play session going “I made no progress” because I always obtained materials that allows me to build towards my finished goal.
I think you can actually have both, its about balancing the mat requirements vs luck.
For your example, PoE is perfect. There is high variance strats like Div card farming or currency farming MF where your profit hinges on hitting a big drop or getting that div card to drop.
Breach and legion offer you much lower profit over time, but reward you for every single encounter. You will never leave a breach or legion without at least one splinter.
When you create a game with nothing other then loot drops, and no way to modify them, you are just creating a loot box simulation. You can end up with an extremely bad streak that ends up making you never progress for days at a time.
Its why people so desperately ask for ways to add lp to items, or reverse bad crafting or what have you. Because people want to feel progression and not simply pull the one armed bandit 10k times to come up empty.
I think the experience of being excited by what pops out much better fits in genres like Rogue/roguelites. Where your experience with items happens over a short to medium play time, and sometimes you hit your first item room and its some crazy item and you roll over the game, and then the next you struggle all game until you lose the battle of attrition and run out of health because you just got really bad items. But its okay, you go next.
I think in longterm progression style games you really do need to have a good mix of excitement for loot as well as a way to always be working towards a long term goal in a meaningful way.
Thats really what LE lacks currently, is there is no long term goals you obtain by putting in hours. whether you put in 50, or 500 hours, if your goal is X item, hours put in just puts you closer to infinity chances which means you hit closer to true statistics. That isnt really that great.
I really would love it if loot alone could be exciting like it is in a roguelite, but that would require dumbing down items to a degree that would lose the charm of having so many different item affixes.
edit; this is also a bit offtopic, someone make a 500th item thread so we can bitch about opinions on pretend items hehe