This. This. This.
The problem with most ARPG systems is that the RNG results in “chunks” of progress. Need a particular item ? The probability disctribution says it takes, on average, 100 tries. But that means somebody could come along and it takes them 300 tries.
that’s all very nice , but it leaves the unlucky player hating the game, because they just happened to be the one that took 3x as many tries as it “should” have to get something they wanted.
what you want is RNG that converges over time, i.e. people can get very lucky, but you limit how unlucky they can be. Easier said than done.
Say you want a particular unique. The game doesn’t know what you want. it might take you 100 runs, on average, but you’re not lucky so it takes you 1000, except by the time you get to 500 you’re probably going to go find something else to do.
However the crafting system is more incremental. earn crafting shards, craft your item bit-by-bit, so much more deterministic. But, then there is the cliff that is fracturing. so now you may have to craft 20 items, each of which requires a lot of farming to get the crafting items you need, to get the one item you want/need.
I think this is a very difficult problem to solve.
I just wanted to chime in and say please err on the side of making the game more deterministic.