So, how many concurrent players do you think the start of Cycle 1.1 will have?

General
1

As we all know, Last Epoch has suffered a massive loss of players - the game went from a peak of almost 265.000 concurrent players on release to around 10.000 players these days, a fall of more than 90% of its playerbase.

Now, there are two schools of thought about that:

  1. This is the usual behavior of season-based games like Path of Exile and Diablo 4, and the playerbase will come right back as soon as the next “season” (or Cycle) begins.

  2. People have lost interest, and the future of Last Epoch is closer to that of Wolcen - a game that was abandoned and left as a bugged, broken husk.

The truth is likely something in between; and the main hint we’ll have of what the future will look like is the number of players who comes back for the next Cycle.

So, now that we have been shown the roadmap and thus know more or less what’s coming, how many players do you think we’ll have for Cycle 1.1?

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Regardless of how big or small the number is LE will have much more fall-off compared to other similar games just because it doesn’t have enough substance (yet).

I think 1.1 will peak at like 150-200k and then sit at 100k for a while before sinking.
Let’s see

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3

I’m not sure why you added this as there is zero chance it will be closer to Wolcen than say POE in terms of player retention. Wolcen never recovered as it took the a VERY long time to fix their issues and actually add seasonal content.

LE hasn’t abandoned the game and has communicated what is coming. They are improving endgame for 1.1 and I expect a peak of around 220k but potentially more. I think it will drop from 1.0 as a certain number players probably won’t return for 1.1. Either due to the game not being what they hoped or it needing a lot more to do at endgame than 1.1 will deliver.

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4

My guess would be around 150-250k.
Every ARPG suffers from massive loss of players - Diablo 4 went from 10mil to not even a 100k concurrent players within a couple of weeks of it coming out. PoE have about half a million people joining in every season, but within a month that is also down about 70-90%.
This isn’t the Diablo 2 era where there simply wasn’t other online games to play.

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5

For me all depend based on the release date of the 1.1, if is after a full month to Diablo 4 season 4, probably will reach 150/200k, maybe also a bit more, but if is closer, let’s say one or two week after, I don’t see possibile surpass the 100/150k, mainly for the mediatic buzz and the content creator that probably will still be playing D4 new season

6

If there is no other major release or other season arround the numbers will be fine. I take a wild guess and say that 1.1 will see less players then the launch.

7

LE had a launch with a lot of hype involved which is good because lots of players bought the game. But typically those hype launches are not very good when it comes to player retention (see pal world e.g.). Some players might also skip a season depending on what other games come out.

I would say that 100k would already be a huge success.

8

No idea / doesn’t matter. From what I see most devs are passionate about their game, and would continue to develop it, even if there is a small community, say 1000 people playing it.
From financial point of view, the only thing that matters is how many MTX is bought, and occasional new purchases. And I think the game already has a stable core of MTX whales.

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Yeah, I’d imagine that it would continue to see a faster decline than PoE does until they can get more content out for a more engaging endgame.

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I think we’ll get less than 1.0 because many players tried it and are done with it. Not just because of the game’s flaws, but simply because there is a sizable portion of the playerbase that will play the game for a few hours or dozens of hours and be done with it forever. This happens in every game.
And while 1.0 had a lot of hype to attract a lot of new players, 1.1 won’t be anywhere near it.

Also, the proposed changes/additions for 1.1 don’t seem enough to bring many players that are looking for more endgame, since pinnacle bosses aren’t a thing that is appealing to many types of players.

Overall, I think 1.1 will fall around the 100k-150k range. I’d be surprised (but I hope it does happen) if it got over the 200k mark.
I also think it will fall off faster than 1.0, because, as I mentioned, pinnacle bosses aren’t that appealing to many players.

Lastly, I predict that the seasons/leagues/cycles for D4/PoE/LE will start to become more irregular as each studio will sometimes delay the start of a new season depending on the other 2, so as to maximize player retention.

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I mean, I dont think ill get anyone from 1.0 back for 1.1 in my group of around 5 players.

The game simply does not have enough hook at the end game, but less so then it not having a hook, once you are past the honeymoon phase as someone not that dedicated to the genre… the game is way to bugged.

I had 5 players try out the game. 3 in 0.9, two of which returned for 1.0. And then 2 more for 1.0.

of those 4 players who played 1.0, one didnt like gear progression, you get decently decked out right away, then spend hours upon hours not getting a single upgrade. This player is not new to the arpg genre so they know what they are doing.

One was a brand new player who ended up not liking all the side work of the faction system requiring so much grind/set up. He started in CoF, felt like he wasnt getting any items, swapped to MG, then couldnt buy anything quickly, so simply gave up.

One did okay, had fun, just a general good gamer in general, but I think he just didnt vibe with the genre that much.

And one just is bored because he had played in 0.9, and 1.0 wasnt that much of an upgrade because the classes he enjoys didnt get buffed/changed so he would just wait until they are better/cooler.

I really think the game is missing its mark in many aspects, and I think the cycles are not adding enough core content that really should have been added to the game pre 1.0. There is so many players that are interested in trying certain classes or builds who then come to understand the build simply does not do what it says on the tin because some node in a skill is broken, under powered, or literally the skill has no options because it hasnt had its tree updated since 2020.

They unironically probably need to nerf early game gear progression, while buffing late game gear progression. its sooo easy to get a t16 rare item, or a t14/15 on the right base. Then its just chasing the right exalted on the right base for hours on end. So what ends up happening is you often times if you have a good filter and good grasp of the crafting system, you can end up making perfectly fine gear by the time you hit empowered monos, rending other content just a slog to hopping to get a good item.

They desperately need to balance the classes so people who enjoy a particular character style are not left out cold unable to make a connection with their favorite arpg playstyle cause its just been unchanged for years and years. This ties in with skills. Some skills have almost no transformative effects and have really dated design. Mage really showcases this. Sorc skills and spellblade skills are sooo old and need reworks/redesigns.

The faction system is really cool and interesting. But the grinding aspect of it is terrrrible. I think they should reduce the benefit you get from spending faction, and instead just front load all of the exp to progress into the monster killing part. CoF in particular I started just spending on random prophecies I didnt actually care about just to progress my exp bar, that seems like terrible design. Same with MG where people just list items for the sole purpose of getting exp rather then actually doing some market investment/trying to make gold.

These are the types of things that push away people not interested in pushing 1k corruption, and it feels like they are just releasing an entire patch dedicated to “pinnacle bosses” because some really invested players said they need them or the game sucks or something.

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12

This is my main concern as well.

In, for example, Path of Exile, leagues have a theme - some kind of new time limited content designed to drawn players (with just a small touch of FOMO). Las Epoch’s 1.1 cycle won’t have any of that - it will be updates to be base game, but that’s the kind of thing Path of Exile does together with their league updates (often changing their endgame in the big end of year league).

At the same time, Path of Exile and GGG are massivelly bigger than Last Epoch and EHG - plus it took them years to reach their current sizes. It doesn’t really feel fair to compare them with LE.

And, considering how much Last Epoch’s endgame has been criticized, it feels like a wise move to focus on improving it instead of making transitory content that likely would be forgotten in a few months.

EHG’s current strategy is likely the best they could do under their current circunstances. The question is whether it will be enough.

13

While this is true, the fact is that players will decide based on what the games offer now.
In fact, this might even become an issue for PoE2 where PoE players might play it for a bit and then return to PoE1 because it has much more content. We’ll see what GGG comes up with to reverse this.

Yes, stuff they’re adding now is stuff that is needed in core. However, one doesn’t preclude the other. For many many years leagues were simply the testing stage for PoE’s new mechanics, which were then toned down and shipped with core.
So it’s possible to have season exclusive mechanics and later incorporate them into legacy. They might even incorporate them as is (other than balance tweaks) without having to gimp them like GGG does.

So once they’re happy with the state of the game, they can start adding stuff based on: cycle gets it now, legacy gets it in 3-4 months.

14

I agree and know that the majority of palyer will not want this nor even experience this kind of content. But still this kind of stuff is important to make a game feel more complete and give you aspirational goals and milestones. This is what many many players that are already invested in LE wanted for many years.

At some point you need to do and I think there is probably never the “right” time to do it, simply because you could always implement the next new fancy feature that more than 10% (just some arbitrary number) of the playerbase will experience.

Also I could see this helping a lot of the content creators that usually do spent more time than the average player staying longer with the game, which then ,means they will longer promote the game because they keep playing it longer per cycle.

So indireclty this might lead to better play numbers who knows.

For me personally I really like that all of the cycles from 1.1 to 1.4 seems to have some endgame stuff in it, some might be not as pinnacle endgame as other but generall all have some endgame stuff in them.

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15

Yes, I agree. I was just pointing out that 1.1 numbers will likely be lower than 1.0. Maybe even for 1.2.
PoE took some time until they had a large enough regular playerbase. Not to mention that at the time the only “competition” was D3 and those targetted very different players.

So overall I think LE will have a hard road ahead, simply due to heavy competition. I hope they get at least 100k+ per cycle, but I would be (positively) surprised if we got 200k again this year. I hope they pull it off, I sincerely do, but based on player trends and competing games, I don’t really expect it.
But I do expect them to reach that over time. Especially if PoE keeps doing heavily criticized leagues like the current one.

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I actually think there’s a non negligible chance Path of Exile 2 will crash and burn - I think the current PoE players may not enjoy a much slower game, and the general playerbase won’t stay for long in a game focused so much on grind like Path of Exile.

If PoE 2 really becomes something closer to PoE’s Rutheless Mode than to PoE itself, I wouldn’t be surprised if players try it but soon leave for the original PoE, for Diablo 4 and for Last Epoch (and a few to No Rest for the Wicked).

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20k-60k people for first 2 weeks until majority realize the same connection issues are present and overwhelming bug list since 2020 hasn’t changed, it will drop drastically and quickly.

However, if RMT destroys cycle 2 like cycle 1then all bets are offs. As there is still much RMT advertisement spam, and no real communication from EHG, it is not looking like cycle 2 will provide confidence to anyone who was let down in cycle 1.

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18

I really think you overestimate how slow PoE 2 will be.

All the gameplay they showed and the gameplay that could be tested were medium geared characters not even at “endgame”.

If you compare the poE 2 Footage with all the footage they gave in the past years from PoE 1 teaser, promotion/league material its actually not that much of a difference.
GGG never showed crazy high end builds in any of their promotion material, never.
The devs also said that people shouln’t expect a crazy slower game.

Yes PoE 2 will be slower and more methotical, but not to the degree many people think it will be.
I woudl argue so much that taking away a bit mroe at the top top end will actually behealthy for the game, as the devs can design actual mechancis that can’t be ignored or triviliazed.

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19

I am a bit concerned for 1.1.
According to the Roadmap, it looks very light in content compared to 1.2 and after. Probably more a “balancing” patch than a proper cycle.
Yes, having a pinnacle boss is great, that’s something to target. But once it is unlocked, legacy players will destroy it in 10 minutes. Then what? Will the mysterious Harbingers and Nemesis be enough on their own to motivate players?

I would expect lower numbers than 1.0, maybe 150k (?), and above all I expect players count to drop much, much faster than in 1.0.
Very happy to be proved wrong.

(I for one won’t play 1.1, but I will come back at some point for 1.2. Not at launch, I never play an ARPG at season launch. I mean, I love lag and disconnections as much as the next traveller, but I prefer them when they affect other people.)

20

My own guess, before the update hits:

Between 60.000 and 80.000 players.

At the Path of Exile Database, we can see the Steam numbers for PoE’s concurrent players; as the site says, GGG has mentioned they usually have a 60/40 spread of players between Steam and the standalone client. Rounding down a bit, if we use an average of 150.000 players on Steam at the start of new leagues, we would have a total number of more or less 250.000 concurrent players for Path of Exile.

Now, if we were to assume that Last Epoch would get more or less 125.000 thousand players at the start of 1.1, that would be more or less half of what Path of Exile gets at league start. IMO, it’s unlikely that LE will have that many players, considering:

  • Path of Exile is a much older game, with a more established fanbase
  • The size of the updates. Path of Exile’s leagues have more content than what we have been told Last Epoch’s 1.1 will have (which makes sense, GGG is far, far bigger than EHG)
  • Looking at the Path of Exile forum and the Last Epoch forum, the former has a lot more daily posts than the latter (even now, when both games are at the lull between major releases)
  • The PoE Necropolis teaser has 273.000 views on YouTube, while LE’s Harbinger of Ruins teaser has 70.000 views, significantly less (do notice I’m using the PoE teaser, not the trailer with full content reveal).

Therefore, I think 1.1 will have a peak of around a bit less than a half of what Path of Exile usually gets.

Now, playing the devil’s advocate, one reason why I could be wrong: Last Epoch has reached a peak of more than 250.000 players at release. If half of those come back for 1,1, the game would have the 125.000 concurrent players some have predicted

We’ll see soon enough, I guess.