I Don't See Why Forging Potential Exists

I would say I am about at the g in the green game section. I may play and think that I am an orange or red player but realistically my playstyle is barely into the T6 line. It is setting and expecting unrealistic expectations and demanding that they are met is a large problem for developers.

You do not know how many times from players I have heard that every fighter in classic D&D should be carrying +5 mithril vorpal blades and be able to have (11 to 20) crit range. Just because an item is there, listed somewhere does not mean it is obtainable and if you DO get it, what cost is that going to be? Much like handling a Wand of Orcus, there are bonuses but definite downsides. I am giving classic examples that have been around for more than 40 years. The same argument being made now was the same made then. I want it, I am throwing a temper tantrum until I get it. So as a DM I would just kill your character off and move on :stuck_out_tongue: .

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For those items, it can’t happen for tier 3 and above. There’s a 1 in 16000000000000000000 chance that any Winigs of Argentus drop with LP4 (switched from Rav Void because Wings has the old drop rates still). There’s a 1 in 13,983,816 you’ll win the lottery.. The odds are far closer to the number of insects on the planet, at 10,000,000,000,000,000,000. Now that’s the odds once you’ve already dropped Wings. You still have to farm each one individually. If we assume that the odds of getting a pair of wings are approximately 20% (changes with corruption), then we have to reduce your odds by a factor of 5 (as you can imagine, this is far, far worse for Rav Void).

So the problem isn’t that these items are super rare, it’s that the numbers make them effectively non existent. No one will ever see these items in the entirety of the game, and if someone does claim to have one, we’ll all just assume they must be cheating because the odds of the item being cheated are now far far greater than if the item was legitimate.

My problem isn’t that I expect to get these items, my problem is as you’ve described the system is in fact not how it works. There is no chance for a positively surprising outstanding drop on almost all of the most exciting stuff. You have the red bar listed as “Not expected for players to reliably get”, but in the current state of the game, the top half of that bar should be labeled as “Not expected for players to get, ever”.

Only the very lowest end of the red category. I’ve dropped a few double exalts (never particularly good), a good bunch of 2LPs (usually on poor uniques), and maybe a couple 3LPs (always on poor uniques with great LP that increases the odds drastically). Almost everything beyond that is completely inaccessible to the entire playerbase.

If the system worked exactly as you describe it, I’d be very happy with it. If every once in a while someone dropped a 4LP on a great unique and we saw some 3 and 4 exalts in the wild, then the sense that this ‘could’ drop for me would be established. Those items would be real, just like the mirror of Kalandra is, but in their current state they are very much not real.

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Just to add for reference, since the Mirror of Kalandra has now been referenced multiple times; that item is estimated by some to have a drop rate of 1 in 1 million. Even if we assume that these estimates are off by a factor of ten, so the actual drop rate is 1 in 10 million, let’s do a side by side comparison of the drop rates of a 4 LP wings vs a mirror:

                      10,000,000
      16,000,000,000,000,000,000

Bear in mind, Mirror can be basically any drop after a certain level in PoE, so any time you get a drop while mapping (which is like…hundreds on a juiced map), it could be a mirror. Wings have to drop before these odds are even in play, and they only drop off of one specific boss in the game that you have to actively choose to kill.

So, given how few players ever see a mirror in PoE, do we really think those odds are reasonable, even for an item that’s supposed to be super rare?

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Oh man. You destroyed everything! It was nice to not know the exact numbers. :laughing:

I know, but it had to be done!

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Yes it did.

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In the past leagues of PoE, Mirror rates were actually easier. My time 2 mirrors have dropped for me. The 2nd mirror that dropped I remember the best, it was after killing Cortex the first time along with getting my first Nebulus. The 2nd was a random drop from a broken bone container with the lich in an abyss in 3.2 (Bestiary league)

The fact that you remember exactly where those dropped and when is what I want for the best drops in LE :slight_smile:

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It’s craftable and as soon as you get everything you you can go for it. In this stage of the game it’sdoable by tacking a ten and be done with it. In D&D you can get everything you want with enough time spent in certain campaigns.

You don’t have the guarantee to drop anything you like or craft anything you like in LE.

I LIKE it when something is available to get there are means to get it outside of grinding for 1k+ hours because this is artificaly stretched content from my point of view. and a bit of a joke if you still call an item with such low drop rates “still obtainable” when it’s more relastic to win in a lottery.

if it’s there and obtainable in a given ruleset and you kill the char just because you don#twant chars to have legit obtainable items you are the problem not the item. It’s your table so houserule it and play with the players you have left because you change the rules that’s what is called cheating in PC games iirc :p.

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Everyone has the right to different opinions. I can say exact same about you, you are the problem. How easy was that? Those seeking material possessions that have no meaningful value is a large issue with humanity in general. Let’s respect each others differences and if you feel cheated that is on you, I will not feel cheated because I already calculated the improbable find is only worth it if it actually happens.

Like the 2 mirrors from PoE I KNOW EXACTLY where and when it happened. We need to let LE grow and then as content is added move the goalpost as necessary.

Pretty easy you didn’t even call something like powerplay or char progression over all or whatever. I don’t care. BTW no offence :).

What i care about is simple: If it’s obtainable make it obtainable with more or less effort. Creating systems that tell you “there is this mysterious item, it’s so good you wont belive it! Oh you asked what you need to do to get it? no idea noone got it, it’s like almost imposible, it’s easier to get hit by a lightning… twice in a row… on a sunny day without any clouds in sight… but maaan if you have this item…” That is the sad part for me.

If an item dropn in 1/100 trys and each try takes 10 minutes thats a LOT of time to get something. It’s still an okay timeframe but 1/1000 or 1/16000 is pretty stupid since the early 2000s.

I think that in order to discuss the validity of the RNG, it is necessary to first determine what the players consider to be the goal in the game.

Who can tell me what this game is about?

Banging my virtual head against newer and harder opponents, getting rewarded with better gear to make my build stronger so that i can bang my head against even newer & harder opponents… Rinse & repeat…

hopefully its 1) fun & entertaining banging my head against opponents and 2) I can realistically improve my character & gear at a pace that doesnt leave me frustrated that I can no longer bang my head against newer harder opponents.

When 1 and 2 are no longer possible or there are no newer harder opponents, then the game is over for me.

Very simplistic & highly personal…

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That’s the problem. It wasn’t ever stated as if it’s a chase item to grind for. It was always said that it is technically possible, but very much improbable. 4LP Ravenous Void and 4xT7 Exalted items aren’t supposed to be “obtainable”. They were never advertised as such. It is just in the Merry Christmas Land daydreams of people with their obscene character planner dreams. I’m sure there have also been many people that used item editors to put them on a character. I don’t see the point in that. At that point, why not just put some arbitrary T56 item on each slot? T100? All power level cutoffs are arbitrary and people complaining about where that is in this game, or any other, is equally arbitrary. People won’t agree, and even if some get their way, it still won’t be enough for others. It never will be.

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Then why do they even exist?

I am honestly interested… I understand what you and everyone is saying here but I still dont have an answer to my VERY simple question from anyone - if something isnt supposed to be obtained by normal means, why does it exist at all?

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I think removing ‘by normal means’ makes it a better question. And honestly, its a good question. Hope we get an answer!

I don’t really see this as an issue of design, rather a practical consideration.

As a programmer, why would I specifically code an exception when the system already behaves the way it is intended?
4 LP Ravenous Void are supposed to be unobtainable and the current implementation of the LP calculation makes it unobtainable for all intents and purposes, there is no need of giving it special treatment.

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Due to coding. It actually takes extra coding to exclude the items.

I have answered this before. They are practically unobtainable due to the mathematical function of compounding rare rolls. For example, a T6 affix could be equivalent to rolling a 20 on a D20. Upgrading that T6 to a T7 could then be rolling a 20 on the “upgrade” roll. That would make a T7 affix a 1/400 chance. Now add in another T6 on top of that and it becomes a 1/8000. Another T7 would be 1/160000. Those aren’t real numbers in LE, but just an example of what I mean with compounding difficulties.

These items are “in the game” only insofar as they haven’t been blacklisted.

I understand the background related to the simple fact that there is a bit of mathematical code that works for all drops based on values input by the devs for specific items and drop rates BUT it doesnt actually answer the question directly… it provides an EXCUSE as to why the items exist.

I do not agree… Having done some development myself and worked with development teams on much bigger projects, this approach is like not trapping for exceptions in their code because they dont have time to do so. Thats gonna bite you in the arse.

My question remains… and I am of the opinion that if the devs are afraid that these kinds of items (4LP uniques & 4T7 type exalts) are so dangerous / game breaking that they need outrageously low drop rates as to make them virtually impossible to get, then they simply shouldnt even be possible in the first place…

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I agree with @vapourfire in that its pointless to make them exist if they won’t exist in the game.

I’m sure there’s more to it, there always is. But as it stands it just seems… weird. Strange. So, here’s to hoping something is given to us from a dev, and not from someone guessing/assuming/etc. It’s appreciated of course, just would rather have something concrete on this one.