It’s really not. When you’re looking at a small sample of numbers, it’s quite easy to have a good or bad run.
Well atm it feels like there are sets/uniques for like 30-40% of the builds/classes they are available in game. The raw stats that rare gives surpasses the unique features most of the unique items. Same thing for set items. I know its beta and its not completed yet thats why i point it out and i think i am not the only one who does.
EHG has made the case for the accuracy of random numbers so many times now. The topic should be through after 5 minutes of forum search, right?
Otherwise, the so-called “selective perception” still exists.
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As i said above i test crafting a lot the last couple of months i play LE. And my numbers are not for today or last week. 80% of the times when the percentage is 60% the item breaks.
I keep seeing these posts. And I know RNG is very solid. There is one aspect of a game that I have seen though that was a bug.
In Asherons Call, there used to be this guy named Wi or Wii. When we would go into dungeons to get loots, if this guy was part of the group he would always be targeted by the mobs and slaughtered. When he respawned same. Over and over and over. We as players would eventually let him get items first. The eventually found the bug. There is probably a wiki about it even. It took the devs awhile to find this ghost in the machine. But we the players werent crazy.
I dont know if that is what is happening here. I doubt it. But given how many threads lately it made me remember that guy back in like 00. And there is a mythos around it. Apparently it was a bug surrounding the assignment of aggro which was supposed to be random. Again not sure if that is what is happening here. But it reminded me of Wi. Also it was called the Wi Flag. Not bug.
I appreciate that you are giving feedback on the way it feels. That’s valuable feedback. It isn’t bugged but I totally hear you that it feels that way. This is something that we are working to remedy and have a prototype that we have been testing but it isn’t quite right.
So, finding that 80% of items fracture by 60% success rate actually makes a lot of sense if you do the math behind it.
Let’s say an item starts at 95% success rate and goes down by 5% each time you craft. I know that’s not quite right but I’m assuming you’re using some glyphs in there too and just as a thought experiment it’s representative enough for now.
The chance that you get the item all the way down to 60% and succeed on that craft is 0.95 * 0.9 * 0.85 * 0.8…*0.6. The percent chance that all those crafts are successful is 11.9% so getting an item crafted that many times successfully is really actually quite rare. All of the crafts are above 60% and half of them are in that 80%+ range where it feels like a given that it should succeed.
The really crazy thing is just in those first 4 crafts which feel like a sure thing, you only have a 58% chance of success. That’s only slightly better than even odds that you’ll get past 80%. Feels crazy right?
I just want to be clear that the success rate will not just go down by 5% each time so it’s not quite a perfect representation of the numbers but hopefully this gives some insight into why it feels like you’re getting screwed over and over.
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Great reply Mike, when you work it out the way you describe below it makes it more clear why the system behaves the way it is.
However, having seen a few of these threads over time the take home message I’m getting is the current crafting system can be a frustrating experience. I personally can look past it when I think of it the way you described the crafting chances but it could be off putting for a number of other players. Maybe there needs to be some improvements here somewhere, or a happy middle ground?
I feel you. But as Mike said Chances and Math are tricky not to say a bitch…Sry. I am a chemist and in chemistry there are compounds that are synthesized over 30,40,50 steps with a 0.98-0.99% throughput. You think thats actually high but for so many steps every digit counts. Example 0.99^50 is nearly 60% at the end while 0.98^50 ist merele 36%.
So TL;DR: While 80% seems high. Multiplicative chances are getting low fast. So use that Guardian Glyphs 
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I see… Well i thought it resets every time it crafts and its just solid 6/10 to succeed and 4/10 to fail… Thank you for the reply. It would be awesome to succeed with the remedy. Awesome game with awesome developers. And awesome forum support with fast replies.
Each craft is independent yes that is true. I was trying to illustrate the point that if you are crafting an item from 100% down to 60%, chances are that in that time, it will fracture.
If you’ve made it to 60%, it is a 60% chance of success.
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Instead of feeling buggy it just feels kinda bad now. The way item progress works means you are supposed to craft multiple times on an item to make it usable or an upgrade but chances are so low… its frustrating.
Also i made this point in another topic already but its easier to craft really good items (e.g. 7/4/x/x weapons) than it is to make some 5/5/x/x items now… which is strange. Its like there is a big void in between early monolith and endgame items.
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The problem is the totally random drops. For example i play like 2 months and still no exalted item that have the affixes that i want for my Void Knight dropped. And 2 months i play only with my VK. Also a lot of items for other classes drops (which is kinda bad cause the drops are random enough without them) and when you get an item with 2 out of 4 the affixes you want for example after a lot of grinding and it breaks in like 75% and that happens like 7-8 times in a row you feel kinda sad/frustrated … Well game is still in beta and i hope the remedy you working on will make things better. Cheers for the good work.
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Yep, agreed!
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Edit: Is it my idea or crafting got worse after 8.2 ? Dont remember having so many fractures at 75-94% in 8.1. Please fix it at least in release… Having an item fracture so many times at 80+ is kinda sad… Makes crafting so much unrewarding.
The percentage chance to fracture did not change in 0.8.2. The percentage chance to fracture is accurate. If you believe it to not be accurate then please record a significant number of contiguous crafts where your fracture rate is too high and link it to me. I know this isn’t really what you want to hear but it is likely right and as a human, you are disproportionately remembering the failures vs the successes.
I understand that it is frustrating but if I’m way off on what’s going on, I’m curious how would you suggest we fix it?
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It’s probably because it slightly is.
I think many items will have less overall instability, but at certain breakpoints this is a nerf to your success rate.
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I believe that the system is fair and working as intended, and I’ve learned to tolerate it just fine.
But my concern for the success of the game is that this is a core system, the source of the majority of gear, and so far the only answer is to ignore basic tenets of human psychology to find enjoyment in it. I also feel that the comments are met with answers like “I tested it and it’s fine” rather than acknowledging that a core system feels more punishing than it does rewarding to many players. I wish we got more responses like this one above:
I appreciate that you are giving feedback on the way it feels. That’s valuable feedback. It isn’t bugged but I totally hear you that it feels that way. This is something that we are working to remedy and have a prototype that we have been testing but it isn’t quite right.
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I get what you’re saying about not enjoying the system and that’s totally valid. We are actively working to improve crafting core functionality and player experience. I have been very careful to not suggest that the system is perfect or that it is providing the exact experience we want, because it isn’t. I’m just really trying very hard to dispel this myth that the numbers are inaccurate or that the player is being lied to. I’ve seen so many comments along the lines of “with the bugged crafting system…”. Just accepting it as fact that the numbers are wrong.
The system isn’t perfect and we are working on that. In the meantime, it’s not bugged is just about all I can say in response to those types of posts.
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I love discuss statistics with people who doesn’t know statistics.
Btw, myke you did a great job.
I can understand a certain level of frustration with that, Mike. People sometimes assume a few negative results means it must not be working correctly rather than just being an unlikely, but horribly bad streak of luck. I believe the system works correctly, but I have experienced those bad luck streaks too.