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Crafting feels kinda bugged

Hello. Wanted to say good job for the awesome game you made and have some questions and also suggestions.
a) Is the crafting percentage bugged? Its kinda lame for items to shatter at 75%+ 7/10 times when it should be the opposite. Its really feels like the odds are opposite from the actual number.

b) Please fix the uniques and especially the set items. They are really really weak rignt now. Its not normal to be more happy when a blue items with good affixes drop than a unique or set item.

c) Players should be able somehow to target the stats they want. One suggestion is new monoliths buffs. Like “you have 40% chance for more items with physical dmg % to drop” and this should be with all the suffixes avaible right now, to avoid all the bad exalted and other items drop in game.
Thats my 2 cents i hope you consider my feedback.

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It is not.
EHG did tons of testing on this, Mike did simulations with up to one billion crafts, he confirmed that the numbers are accurate. It’s been a very long discussion that raises from time to time but Mike is 100% sure the numbers are accurate.
It’s a psychological effect: you will be affected and remember situations with a failure or bad impact but you tend to almost forget when you succeed.

I did a test right now. I had like 7-8 items out of the 11 i tried to craft shatter at 80% its not normal… Either the percentage is bugged or its intented to be that way for the game to be more sandbox.

You did a test with 8 items. @Mike_Weicker did a test with a billion items. Literaly.
I guess one of these tests is more accurate than the other.
And you can have a bad luck streak, for sure! I’ve had some, it’s really frustrating.

Thats just 30 min ago…
I have tried so many items today and last couple of months i play LE. Also at 60% chance to succeed it feels more like you have 10-20% to succeed. Something is really wrong with the numbers…

I won’t respond further, I can’t say more than Mike, who developed the system.
Only thing I can say: I 100% trust him.

Its not that i dont trust developers. I do trust them. But i think beta is for people to test things and report if something feels off. And crafting right now feels kinda off from my pov. Good luck and have fun with the game.

True and that’s why your comment is fully legitimate and important.
I’ll let Mike say more if he comes here. :wink:

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Uniques and Sets are weak?
Firstly Uniques / Sets aren’t meant to be ” best item on slot automatically” your build define those. Some of my characters are running with zero uniques some of them multiple uniques.

Uniques gives more build variety and some uniques are powerful leveling items. Some of the oldest ones can seem ”weak” compared to new ones. But there is very cool/powerful uniques which aren’t weak.

And for crafting i think devs can give answers or tips how to check that your client isnt bugged if you really have wrong numbers on that crafting. I think there were some discussion about recording video about crafting results.

I love when a unique is not “powerful”, but is “build enabling”. When it brings a new mechanism or synergy that would be impossible or extremely difficult with any rare item.

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It’s really not. When you’re looking at a small sample of numbers, it’s quite easy to have a good or bad run.

Well atm it feels like there are sets/uniques for like 30-40% of the builds/classes they are available in game. The raw stats that rare gives surpasses the unique features most of the unique items. Same thing for set items. I know its beta and its not completed yet thats why i point it out and i think i am not the only one who does.

EHG has made the case for the accuracy of random numbers so many times now. The topic should be through after 5 minutes of forum search, right?

Otherwise, the so-called “selective perception” still exists.

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As i said above i test crafting a lot the last couple of months i play LE. And my numbers are not for today or last week. 80% of the times when the percentage is 60% the item breaks.

I keep seeing these posts. And I know RNG is very solid. There is one aspect of a game that I have seen though that was a bug.

In Asherons Call, there used to be this guy named Wi or Wii. When we would go into dungeons to get loots, if this guy was part of the group he would always be targeted by the mobs and slaughtered. When he respawned same. Over and over and over. We as players would eventually let him get items first. The eventually found the bug. There is probably a wiki about it even. It took the devs awhile to find this ghost in the machine. But we the players werent crazy.

I dont know if that is what is happening here. I doubt it. But given how many threads lately it made me remember that guy back in like 00. And there is a mythos around it. Apparently it was a bug surrounding the assignment of aggro which was supposed to be random. Again not sure if that is what is happening here. But it reminded me of Wi. Also it was called the Wi Flag. Not bug.

I appreciate that you are giving feedback on the way it feels. That’s valuable feedback. It isn’t bugged but I totally hear you that it feels that way. This is something that we are working to remedy and have a prototype that we have been testing but it isn’t quite right.

So, finding that 80% of items fracture by 60% success rate actually makes a lot of sense if you do the math behind it.

Let’s say an item starts at 95% success rate and goes down by 5% each time you craft. I know that’s not quite right but I’m assuming you’re using some glyphs in there too and just as a thought experiment it’s representative enough for now.

The chance that you get the item all the way down to 60% and succeed on that craft is 0.95 * 0.9 * 0.85 * 0.8…*0.6. The percent chance that all those crafts are successful is 11.9% so getting an item crafted that many times successfully is really actually quite rare. All of the crafts are above 60% and half of them are in that 80%+ range where it feels like a given that it should succeed.

The really crazy thing is just in those first 4 crafts which feel like a sure thing, you only have a 58% chance of success. That’s only slightly better than even odds that you’ll get past 80%. Feels crazy right?

I just want to be clear that the success rate will not just go down by 5% each time so it’s not quite a perfect representation of the numbers but hopefully this gives some insight into why it feels like you’re getting screwed over and over.


Great reply Mike, when you work it out the way you describe below it makes it more clear why the system behaves the way it is.

However, having seen a few of these threads over time the take home message I’m getting is the current crafting system can be a frustrating experience. I personally can look past it when I think of it the way you described the crafting chances but it could be off putting for a number of other players. Maybe there needs to be some improvements here somewhere, or a happy middle ground?

I feel you. But as Mike said Chances and Math are tricky not to say a bitch…Sry. I am a chemist and in chemistry there are compounds that are synthesized over 30,40,50 steps with a 0.98-0.99% throughput. You think thats actually high but for so many steps every digit counts. Example 0.99^50 is nearly 60% at the end while 0.98^50 ist merele 36%.

So TL;DR: While 80% seems high. Multiplicative chances are getting low fast. So use that Guardian Glyphs :slight_smile:


I see… Well i thought it resets every time it crafts and its just solid 6/10 to succeed and 4/10 to fail… Thank you for the reply. It would be awesome to succeed with the remedy. Awesome game with awesome developers. And awesome forum support with fast replies.

Each craft is independent yes that is true. I was trying to illustrate the point that if you are crafting an item from 100% down to 60%, chances are that in that time, it will fracture.

If you’ve made it to 60%, it is a 60% chance of success.