Yeah, and Mike even answers a similar crafting question in that thread where he details the problem with the current crafting system that creates this feeling and their hopes to improve it with the upcoming crafting changes. There’s several other great answers by Mike in there as well, but this one is probably the most relevant to this thread;
Q: Why does 90% upgrade chance feel more like 90% chance to fracture?
A: I can tell you exactly why that is actually. Say you have a 90% chance to succeed and you do it – like it should be a guaranteed thing – you do it again, you do it again, you do it again, you do it again…you keep going. We’ve just done it, what was that, six or seven times at 90% and all of those feel like guaranteed things – right? And you’re like, okay, if I do ten at 90% the chances are I’ll fail one of them. True. Because fracture chance is a binary – did it happen or not – and by the time you get to five or six, or whatever it is, 90% rolls in a row you have about a 50% chance to fracture it (0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 = 53%).
So if you’re crafting an item and you’re able to, through doing lower affixes – like you do all the 1’s, all the 2’s, all the 3’s type thing – and say you’re also using glyphs to lower the fracture chance than you’re able to do six or seven 90% rolls in a row on one item. Chances are you’re going to fracture that item with only rolling 90%'s. I know that seems really dumb, but it’s the way the math works and it’s really unfortunate.
This is kind of the reason why the crafting system we have right now is a little bit unintuitive and can feel bad. We’re really taking a hard look at how that works and we’ve got a way that we hope will fix this – fix the feeling – but keep the difficulty…keep the agency, but fix the feeling. That’s really the thing we’re going after. We don’t want to remove the capabilities, we don’t want to make it easy mode – we just want to change the feeling. We think we’ve got a way that handles it really nicely. We’re still testing it, we’re still designing it, we’re still doing all these things for it.
It’s been in the works for quite a while now. We first propositioned this change probably a year ago, honestly. Probably more than a year ago actually. But yeah, that’s why 90% upgrade chance feels more like 90% chance to fracture – because it is…kind of [Mike laughs].YouTube Link
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