Wny does damage vary?

I have 100% crit rate. only yellow damage, no variable damage nodes or passives. My base damage is fixed according to LE tools. Why is there any variation in the damage numbers on the dummy? What is causing the range? How can I figure out what the range should be for a given skill?

Do you apply ailment or shred stacks? Stacks varying in number will lead to different numbers applied.

hmm no aliments other than shock and chill and both max very quick. the varying numbers persist way past that. I notice all damage numbers vary.

Maybe the variance is in the defence of the dummy rather than your attack?

Either way, with these questions itā€™s easier to ask on Discord. In the ask the devs channel. Mike usually answers pretty fast.
I asked him now and he replied: ā€œAll damage has the same built in variance that just happens no matter what.ā€
I followed up with: ā€œOk, so itā€™s part of the formula itself, even if the visible stats in the skill and gear have no variance. Is there a way to know what this variance is?ā€
To which he replied: ā€œitā€™s in here somewhere, I canā€™t remember what it is off the top of my head. I think itā€™s 5% but Iā€™m not confident.ā€

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He answered back saying itā€™s a 20% variance. It has no weight and no way to affect it.

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Makes sense. Lots of games have a Ā±X% variance built in

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All non-DoT damage has a +/- 20% variance. The inputs to the damage formula donā€™t have a variance but the game adds the +/- 20% at the end (though due to commutation, it doesnā€™t
ā€™ actually matter where that happens).

@DJSamhein should have known this, heā€™s been around long enoughā€¦

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Tbf, I never actually bothered kowing the damage formula or its inner workings. I know how base, more, increased, etc, work, which is more than enough for me.
Without knowing I would have assumed that it has variance in-built, because that is the case for almost all RPGs, if not all.

I would be curious to know the exact formulas because I canā€™t report if something is bugged if I donā€™t know how it scales.

You would think the math would be simple. But itā€™s not clear.

Eg: 20 (base) + A+ B + Cā€¦ā€¦ 12*3

If there are multiple elements, multiple ailments, scaling with both dex/strength etc

So what I will try to do is get A,B,Cā€¦. 1,2,3 in equal numbers and then try to move stuff around to see how number changes.

The result is a huge pain, since there are no mods to expand damage numbers, and no way to separate them.

If EHG wants a bug free game, first thing they should do is fix and make damage numbers crystal clear.

Also provide explicit damage log in offline so we can open it and see it

Itā€™s in the game guide.

It is, sorry, this is a user problem with the expected Dunning Kruger bonus.

Is fair.

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You need to do a calculation similar to the following: Damage * Sum of Increased * Product of Multiplicative.
Technically you should do this for each different element of damage your attack does, since they would have different amounts of increased or multiplicative damage modifiers.

ā€œDamageā€ is base damage plus any added damage, whether that is adaptive or a specific element. Base damage is given in each skill. For most melee attacks it is 2. Weapons give adaptive spell or melee damage (or both!) with their implicit stats which is tied to the subtype of the item.

Sum of Increased is all sources of ā€œincreasedā€ damage that apply to the skill (match the tags). These are mostly found on item affixes, especially weapons. They are also found in the passive trees, and includes scaling from attributes (str, dex, int, att, vit).
Do this one by just adding together all the percentages as decimals, plus one. (0.70+0.38+0.26+1.0=2.34)

Product of Multiplicative is all sources of ā€œmoreā€ damage that apply to the skill. This is most (if not all) of the bonuses from the specialization tree, and rarely bonuses from the passive tree. These sources typically identify themselves as multiplicative, or use the word ā€œmoreā€ instead of ā€œincreasedā€.
Do this one by taking each % of more as a decimal, add 1 to each, and multiply. (1.251.031.20ā€¦ = 1.545)

Thereā€™s some implications here, but generally you need to balance ā€˜addedā€™ and ā€˜increasedā€™ damage. Multiplicative/more tends to be rare outside of the skill tree, and valuable.

Haha this doesnā€™t even include attack speed or critical chance & critical multiplier but it is waayyy too long and I need to send it or lose it. Iā€™ll just say: attack speed is only a simple multiplier if youā€™re attacking repeatedly without interruption, and critical shouldnā€™t be done halfheartedly.

Aside about effects on your enemy

Note that some modifiers to a target (like shredded resistances or armor) act a lot like more multipliers, but whether they should apply or not depends on exactly how the build plays.