I just found Exsanguinous while farming the boots I did about 40 to 50 runs, still no boots though. How can the drop rate be 15% cuz we should get the boot about 1 in 7 chance, right?
It’s RNG, if you killed Formosus 40 times you’d have a 99.8% chance of getting the boots once, so you’re just very unlucky. It’s not impossible to go that long without a pair dropping, it’s just improbable.
Can confirm it is completely random. I farmed for the fragments of shattered lance about 20 times before it dropped, these boots dropped on my third kill. Farming particular blessings I am cursed though. Every single mono I have been farming for days has offered every other blessing other than the ones I want
It’s just the nature of the beast. However, having come from another game where pretty much everything is rng I am still way more happy with only having to deal with a few elements of rng here & there in LE. Blessings farming is at least giving me something to shoot for.
I see, I got shatter lance on my first kill lol. Do you fail the quest to re-do the boot or you start all over? I failed the quest to redo it, and it is been unlucky so far.
While i can understand why people would do this, this is definitely an exploit/design overlook.
Prepare, that this will get fixed" and will not be possible in the future.
I would highly recommend people not using this method.
If too many people will get used to this, the whining will be massive.
But i am glad, that this not not how it’s supposed to work.
Hopefully they fix it sooner than later
I do it the way it was intended. I start all over again, but I don’t reset my web & increase corruption until I reach the furthest points out in my initial overall direction. As Heavy points out, the “reset quest” system is an exploit, but also I don’t think it would help anyway. I’m personally convinced that it would annoy the rng gods, and they already hate me as it is.
I have actually got one of the blessings I was after at long last (about 4 attempts on that one) and now I am back trying to get Strands of Soles from Abomination. I’m about 5 or 6 attempts in on that one with no joy, so I’m off to the local farmers to buy some goats to sacrifice to the rng gods…
Alright, I will do the right way and see, maybe the drop had be fixed so it won’t work if you exploit the reset.
Got it on my 8th tries
One of the devs stated on discord that the drops won’t work until the timeline has been reset (ie, you kill the boss and complete the echo as intended).
I guess I don’t know how RNG works. I was under the impression that there was no odds increasing mechanic which would mean that each time you have to same 15% chance. Theoretically you could kill Formosus 100s of times and never roll the magical 15% number.
BLUF: Not sure where you got the “99.8” chance since each roll is independent of each subsequent roll.
My apologies if I misunderstood since math is not my primary language.
As far as i am aware, there is no such fail-save system in palce currently anywhere in the game. (Not even in crafting)
Even though each roll is indepentant from each other, you can still calculate the chance of how likely or unlikely it is that something happens or not happens over the course of X amount of rolls. This is basic Probability Mathematics.
So the chance that the event will happen once is computed as one minus the probability that it never happens.
In this case:
1 - (0.85^40) ~ 0.998 = 99.8%
So your “real” chance of getting the item you want rolls out like this when attempts are factored in:
1 | 0.15
2 | 0.28
3 | 0.39
5 | 0.56
10 | 0.80
20 | 0.96
30 | 0.993
40 | 0.9985
50 | 0.9997
Got it, thank you for the lesson. I may have leveled up!
Yes, exactly. Even though the chance for it to happen is always 15%, over a number of runs the expectation is 1-(1-p)^x where p is the probability & x is the number of runs.