I think you wildly underestimate how much some people pay each season. PoE has always had expensive supporter packs, some even going upwards of 200 bucks, and plenty of people still bought them.
Whales are very likely to spend upwards of 1k+ per season.
GW has but a very small fraction of players compared to GW2. It’s mostly entirely supported by the money that GW2 makes, and that has a lot more aggressive sales than GW had.
D2 had regular ladders. It didn’t introduce new content, but it did have exclusive content. So that’s why players kept returning to play it.
My reasoning is simply the history of all games and their expansions. Barely any game in history has had more than 2-3 expansions. And they all came at least a year apart.
Does it, though? It released a DLC a few weeks ago. Before that, there was a QoL update in march which didn’t add anything new to the game. Before that, there was another DLC in December. Before that, it had another DLC in July.
And their DLC’s are kinda small in scope. They don’t add that much to the game. They basically add another “map” to the game.
You mean the game that has a premium monthly subscription? Right.
Also, just look at the chart history and see that it only has baseline players except for a huge spike when the Fallout TV show aired.
It started at 32k players and since has around 15k daily players.
Likewise, look at GD (which is, after all, the game being referrenced as a model) and see that it always has baseline players except when major patches come out.
Also, are you trying to compare the popularity of the fallout brand with LE? That’s like saying that RE4 still has 10k players to this day, so EHG and GGG were better off making a campaign game.
Fallout 76 was a notoriously criticized game at launch, with vastly negative reviews when it came out. They’ve since fixed it a bit, but it’s nothing to model on, even among fallout games.
And yet no game does that, barring some very rare exceptions that don’t really have enough success to be relevant.
So I’d say maybe studios know something you don’t through the combined experienced of decades.
As you well know, MTX sales are all done primarily in the first week of a new season. Which means you need to regularly call out new players to join.
If all you have is, in practice, legacy/standard (because if both get the same content, the vast majority will simply join it due to being the path of least attrition) and content isn’t going away, then there’s no real reason to rush day 1 and no-life the first weekend. Might as well join in a week or two or four after things are more stable.
GW1 was also riddled with hacks and exploits for that very same reason.
It was pretty easy to get around their “verification”. Especially because it didn’t properly check for duped items.
Because they’re still adding core content and they don’t feel pressured financially yet to go into the full seasonal model.
I expect once they feel happy with the core content, then they’ll start doing it. Or maybe not. Maybe they will give it a go and not make seasonal exclusive content. I doubt it will work, but I would be rooting for them.
I’m actually curious to know the evolution of player numbers in LE for legacy/season since launch. If I had to guess, I’d say most players were in season for 1.0, kinda 50/50 on 1.1 and only about 25% of seasonal players in 1.2.
Would be nice if EHG released those numbers.
Either way, I’m sure they have those numbers internally and will make a decision based on them.
They’re working on offline MTX already (even for full offline which has no server communication at all).
I don’t really see any difference between that and a game launch from any AAA game. There’s a huge hype, most players will want to buy it and play day 1. Even for single player games. And they’ll splurge their money on the game.
Is that predatory?
If not, how is it any different from annoucing a new season, players rushing to play day 1 and splurging on MTX?
You even see this with movies, where people will all rush to see a marvel movie or fast and furious π*r^2 (because it keeps going in circles ). Is that predatory as well?
The sad truth is most of the time, players are the ones that generate their own FOMO, even if the game isn’t actively doing it.
D2 had regular ladders with exclusive content, which is when most players would return. It didn’t have a new mechanic each ladder, but it already enforced the reset philosophy. That’s how this whole model evolved. It started with D2.
TQ didn’t have servers where you could play and trade with random people, so it’s not the same thing. It’s like saying that any multiplayer game has no reason to exist because I played Super Mario Bros alone for years.
Yes, this is the main issue. The reason why GGG leaned into this so much is simply because they analyzed their numbers, saw where the money was coming from and tried to make the most of it.