# Forge percentage accuracy

It is only for me that an item fracture with 10% of chance sounds wrong? all my items fracture when I reach 15-20% to chance of fracture, sorry but for me 80% a way higher than 20%… so is only for me that the fracture percentages looks wrong?

We have had devs tell us they have tested the %'s extensively and they are accurate. Its more of a confirmation bias

so I need to make a video showing this problem to they believe us? if is like this they are not different of any other company…

What would a video prove?

They can run a simulation of crafting 100,000 items very quickly and see the results. That tells them how it works, with a large enough sample size to be credible. Either the distributions match the stated percentages, or they do not.

What kind of sample size do you have? Even if you sat and made a video of you crafting 100 items, that is not enough data. Even if you record the crafting results of 500 items, that’s almost certainly still not enough data. Rare things happen. If you sit a flip a coin 10 times in a row and it comes up heads every time, that doesn’t mean it isn’t a fair coin. It means that you were lucky, or unlucky.

This is not an issue you can hope to prove or disprove by yourself. You do not have the proper tools. The devs do. That’s that.

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There’s also the whole aspect of making repeated attempts.

Assume the chance of fracture stays at 10%.
Obviously the chance of success on the first forge is 90%.

But suppose you do three successive attempts. The odds of all three being successful is only (9/10)^3 = 0.723 or now around 2/3. So that means in this simple case of constant 10% fracture chance, about 1/3 of the items you attempt will fracture.

you can’t assume that I dont have the tools to make something like this, you dont know with who you are speaking… your arrogant way does not help in anything here… I am indie developer and I know how this kind of 100.000 test is made and does not reflect the accuracy in game… before you post something with such arrogance… try to learn something about what you are trying to talk…

This is the quote you are looking for:

using your math as example, if 1/3 of the item will fracture, will not be better the percentage appear as 33% of chance to fracture instead of 10%?

Things are getting way too heated way too quickly in here.

Closing.

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