I think some of you forgot that it is not a solo game (unless someone decides to roll SSF- sorry, you brought that on yourself ) and you are not required to find a perfect base with perfect affixes/suffixes that can be used for crafting as you will be able to get one on the baazar. The premise is that even If you cannot drop the base you want, you will most likely drop other items that fit other classes and sell that for profit on the aforementioned baazar and spend the gold on the items you want. You know how the market works (supply vs demand), so you can expect meta build bases to have insane prices and off meta bases to be dirt cheap etc.
When it comes to the “fracturing” mechanic I think it serves it purpose as there has to be something that prevents people from rolling T18-20 all the time. I don’t see any major issues with the odds of fracturing either, still If people claim that the amount of fractures they get in comparison to % chance that it can happen then maybe it’s something devs should look into.
I think that crafting is generally ok, still I would like to see some end game versions of shards (really low drop chance) that allow you craft with 100% probability. Corrupting items (POE style) is also something that could be considered as it gives another layer of crafting and makes your gear even more powerfull and unique.
At the same time I do see a problem with the amount of low level exalted drops. These items are literally useless and I would rather see exalted items dropping less often but on bases that are near my current level (e.g -15 levels to my current level range).
so hold up, if each enchant is indpendent of any other enchant why is it improbable? it should be just as probable?
The probability goes down with each successful enchant by more that % chance the item actually says. If you craft a 90% item with success then an 80% chance with succes and now your at 70% chance, that item independently has a 70% but the odds of probabilty from when you start says that a 3rd successful enchant is actually 50.4%. So why can you increase the odds of probabilty and break an item between each successful enchant to break the success streak and higher that 50.4% to an amount above 70%? The item itself has a 70% chance yes independently there is no increasing that, but the probability looking at all the enchant you wanted to do says it just went up because you broke an item.
Yes, the probability of 3 in a row is 50%, but the probability for the third one to happen is still 70%. If the game says the probability for that third craft is 70%, then that’s what it is, it’s not 50%, even though the probability of getting 3 successes in a row was 50%. Going away and deliberately fracturing a different item won’t change that 70% into a different number.
You can’t, what you saw was a statistical anomaly. What was the statistical confidence that what you saw (being able to get 3 more crafts on an item if you go and fracture a completely different item) was a real thing & not just a fluke? I suspect it’s not even 1 sigma (ie, 68%).
And what I’m trying to say is that the previous crafts are irrelevant. You should have the same chance to craft that 70% craft if you started with a white item and ended up with 70% after x successful crafts as you would if you got the item “fresh” from a mob (or the gambler) and your first craft on it said it would have 70% chance of success.
If you take your argument, those two items would have a different chance of success. The crafted-from-white-to-70% item would have a different chance to succeed than the dropped-with-70%-from-a-mob item. Which they don’t (or shouldn’t, bugs notwithstanding), which means you’re in the gambler’s fallacy.
This is a false equivalence, the two are not the same.
It does not take 100 runs to get an Equinox (or any frame in my experience, and with mtx you can just buy some of them too lol) and while farming for it you can get other pieces which you can trade for Equinox parts as well, and Equinox parts are always 100% the same item whenever they drop, no crafting needed, and then you will have your Warframe that you can then use from then on, which is nothing like Last Epoch. There is no loss of items involved, you don’t run the risk of breaking your Equinox, and you can also reroll it’s mod slots to make it work 100% perfectly, exactly how you like it, with no risk of losing it at all. Once you have it it’s yours and you can min-max the shit out of it.
Again, something that entails zero risk cannot be equated to Last Epoch because in LE you risk breaking every item you try to improve. If the other games don’t involve that same risk, or even a similar risk, they just can’t be used to compare. And games like D3, Grim Dawn and Warframe, hell even New World, are all very successful and competitive games without a risky crafting system. This game was enjoyable in every other aspect (and I sunk hundreds of hours into it) apart from the crafting system. The crafting system caused me to quit.
I don’t think the game needs a risky crafting system at all. There’s already risk involved in losing monolith runs and being set back there, risk in playing glass cannon builds, etc. You don’t need risk in your crafting as well.
Plenty of games have done well without risking losing your items. Hardcore has it’s place, and you lose your character and items there, but that’s always been something for players to opt into if they want that risk. This forces that risk on the average player who is just trying to progress and play and have fun. Losing items is not the kind of thing any average player is gonna be ok with.
There’s no sense in quibbling over probabilities because as it stands this is a mechanic that has proven to be unpopular in other games (for example, Lifebound items in Torchlight 3, items you lose if you die, turned out to be hugely unpopular) and so keeping a mechanic like this in the base game for LE is going to turn a lot of people away, and as a fan of every other aspect of LE, I think that would really be a shame.
This is a perfect example, and shows just how hard it would be for the average joe to get decent crafts without bricking multiple items.
People may find hundreds of items an hour, but it takes a long time to find that perfect base with a max-rolled innate/white base stat on it as well as it dropping with ideal affixes for crafting, and if that item then bricks, you are left with nothing and have to search all over again for an item that is even close to that, which you’ll never likely find the exact same drop again so you just have to make do. This already feels bad, and then if the next best one you find then also bricks, it just feels worse.
Now other people might be able to churn out 100’s of broken items a day and feel ok with that, but if even 1 item breaks in a day for me I feel like I’ve just wasted my damn time and gotten nowhere for the investment of time and effort into that item. If that then happens for multiple items, multiple times in one day, that feeling of time wasted and loss of progression and stagnation becomes greater and greater.
This happened to me on the build I mentioned previously, where everything I tried to craft for it got bricked, early too, and I could not improve the build or push it further because every time I tried to craft a better item than my previous one, they bricked. At the end of that day, I was left feeling like I’d just wasted all of my time on getting nowhere.
Now sure, statistically that’s not going to happen every day, but the fact that it’s a possibility makes me not want to bother investing more time and effort into the game just in case it happens again. I don’t have the time to be wasting on that. I wanna come away from a day of gaming feeling like I got somewhere and achieved something, not like I didn’t even get off first base and struck out and was sent home. Which is how this crafting system has left me feeling on many occasions, and in turn has stopped my friends from buying it, because I told them how it works and left me feeling.
None of them feel like playing a game where you risk losing your items and time and effort invested as a base concept, and neither do I. If the mechanic stays, then I’m out, sadly.
While I agree with this sentiment, and that this needs to be the case or the economy will be flooded with too many perfect items, etc. (when multiplayer/trading actually becomes implemented at least), you can do something like this without needing to destroy items.
You could purely limit the number of crafts onto an item to a flat number, meaning the higher tier bases mean more than the white or lower tier bases. Drops of good bases would likely be prized over good crafts that way, but still isn’t a bad idea.
Or, even more intricately and somewhat keeping the current system, you could have instability stay in but have it be out of a maximum instability on said item, meaning luck with the random amount of instability applied to the item needs to be high. If every craft gave 5-10 instability, and you have a limit of 100 instability on an item, you might be able to craft the full 20 times (on a white base) at 5 instability, or at worst you get 10 crafts at 10 instability.
It would mean there was luck involved (random instability values) and skill involved (using the right glyphs, etc, to be able to craft more onto the item) and no risk of losing your item completely. That way you still take risks but you don’t brick the item completely. That would keep RNG involved, and keep well made items and/or good bases worth something on the market (when it’s implemented). I’d play the shit out of a game with that system to be honest lol even if I suggested it myself
Alright, the numbers presented in the Wiki are 69 ± 18 - this doesn’t change anything in their equivalency. Just change the numbers to 1 in 87 and you’re back on track.
They don’t have to be equivalent on every imaginable level - they only have to be equivalent in their probability of realization - which they are, as both can take roughly such amount before being realized.
In Warframe you finish a mission and don’t get a piece = 10 minutes wasted.
In Last Epoch you finish the mission, get the base, don’t get your affixes = 10 minutes wasted.
Their outcome and structure is equivalent.
It isn’t without a trade-off. These “plenty of games” have a different complaint which is that items drop rarely.
Same way if you don’t get your frame piece in Warframe, you will feel that you just wasted your damn time.
And if the developers removed it and adjusted drop rates to reflect the odds of getting your perfect items without fail then the new complaint would be that no items drop and that they wasted their time.
Everything else you’ve said can be applied in all of these other games by simply swapping “bricking items” out with “items dropping”.
Hello,
I read all the thread, it is interesting, but I feels some points were not well states and must be said to get the full context.
-> First, item you can craft could drop by themself. Of cours for T20 you must be very lucky
-> there are not build necessary or mecanism change but help/optimize your build. It’s different from unique
-> You don’t need perfect item to go end-game
-> it’s easy post 50+ to get item with 2xT5 and T3-T2 other affix. And it’s already good if your build is not bad.
Crafting take ressources and give item that give you increment in power.
So the question is how hard it is to get ressources, how many try and how big is the increment in power.
In LE you nedd to see the base item as a ressource, as it can break, and not as a base of the crafting.
So you must include how hard it’s to find good item to be improved. I think that the loot filter will really solve a lot of complains again the odd of crafting.
Because the thread feel really like winning against the percentage.
I not so high level, I wear plenty of fractured gear with some 3xT5
I only do craft with chance of destructive fracture whan I have a back up.
And with good base, I got fractured but it’s really rare to get a broken item!!
How do you do to not secure an good enough item. It reaaly feel like you want to much of a 4xT5 from scratch or first attempt.
What I’ve managed to diagnose is that these ideas by @boardman21 and @doombybbr are constructed on multiple fallacies and false presuppositions. I’m relatively confident that I’ve cracked the Da Vinci code here.
The main culprit is the incredibly flawed assumption that two completely separate entities have forces on each other ← This is does not need explaining
The rest of their faulty reasoning comes from:
The false presupposition that the odds of random probability is a system which is supposed to work fairly and is interlinked.
Binary reasoning of an item state
Flawed understanding of binominal distribution
Non-allowance of probability variance / no acknowledgement of confidence levels
Number 1
Odds of probability does not have to be a fair system. There is a probability of getting cosmically unfair results and there’s nothing to do about it. The only way to have a fair probability is to remove probability completely by forcing an outcome.
Number 2
What this means is that there is an assumption that there is only A or B and no other possible way of an item being due to the system presenting the either being only A( success) or B( failure / brick).
This is false though!
An item which has succeeded 10 times actually has the qualities of AAAAAAAAAAB but we don’t see it visually, so through reasoning of probability it’s so unlikely that a single item has reached it through odds of probability, we falsely like to assume that there should have been more forces acting on it or at least start seeking foreign powers related to it.
Number 3
The binominal distribution displays what are the most likely odds of a specific odd happening and nothing else - this chart is contingent on confidence levels but with data provided, it does not change as it only shows the probability of a probability.
Don’t mind the accuracy of the chart, just imagine that the percentages make a whole of 100%.
This is what your probability range is for getting an extra A( success) on an item before getting a B, each number is an additional A.
This chart shows that 35% of your items will with certain confidence have AAAAAAAAB.
This presents us with what happens if you take 1000 items and test your probability on them - it’s most likely of all that 350 of them will have 7 "A"s + 1 “B” and 100 of them having 5 "A"s + 1 “B” - all of them together will make a sum of 1000 items.
@boardman21 and @doombybbr do understand binominal distribution and are making arguments based on it but they don’t understand what a confidence level or a probability variance is which comes up in number 4.
Number 4
Binominal distribution only shows the PROBABILITY of a PROBABILITY which can also have it’s own PROBABILITY which is called a CONFIDENCE INTERVAL or a CONFIDENCE LEVEL which still doesn’t show the 100% singularity of an outcome, but a certain above odds of most likely success, mostly commonly practiced as 90% or something above it.
The probability of a probability of a probability of the result being 350 out of 1000 being AAAAAAAAB in this chart is let’s say ± 1 for 99.99% confidence means that for large enough amount of experiments( which could also be unlucky no matter what)
99.99% of the time it will be within 349 - 351 out of 1000 being AAAAAAAAB
0.01% of the time it can result in ANYTHING else, it could be even 0 out of 1000 being AAAAAAAAB as extremely unlikely as it is.
This means that if you have gone through your test and you are at the item 999 while 349 of them have been AAAAAAAAB, then there’s still a chance of it being either a 350 or 349.
BUT
Even then there is a chance of 000000000000000000000.1% all 1000 being AAAAAAAAB being as the point number 1 states - RANDOM PROBABILITY IS NEVER FAIR.
And I think this should be the climax:
@boardman21 and @doombybbr believe that this 349 out of 999 has to become 350 and cannot be 349 because otherwise it will not follow the laws of binominal distribution because confidence levels don’t exist for them.
If you guys didn’t get it this time! OHHHHHH * shakes fist *
1:Getting unlucky/lucky is expected from probability, I never once said it didn’t happen, just that the probability sucks
2:Why would I care about an item that is below t5 in the one affix I want? There is allways a point on the affixes when it crosses over to good, everything before that is a loss, I treat T5 this way because it is allways what I am going for. And being a human being, with loss-aversion, I care more about the loss than the chances of winning big - this may be a fallacy, but it is one that should be avoided triggering in game design. I am not looking at the chances of getting t20, just the chances of getting the minimum acceptable roll, and even that is too low.
3:I don’t care about binomial distribution before the T5.
4:Varience is based on total number of tries as it will tend towards the average over time, and is assumed; It also does not matter - what happened to the previous item does not effect my chances of getting a T5 on this one.
I got most of that, but it’s been over 20 years since I did any probability (in my degree). I am glad that the only statistics I need to do now are of the “Office of National Statistics” kind & TBH, I’d be happy if they died in a ditch (the reporting, not the people, they’re all nice, despite working for the government).
@doombybbr Every crafting system needs some limits or downsides to slow the players access to “good gear”. PoE has the inability to choose the affixes you get, LE has an RNG on bricking an item. What would be your suggestion to remove the RNG without giving people access to top tier gear in the snap of their fingers?
I’ve already made a suggestion further up (before it devolved into an argument about understanding probability), here.
Please stop only speaking about probality.
It make the thread really boring.
Crafting is not only probality, without the all context of itemization is highly unrelevant.
You must get in mind which type of item give crafting, is there a way to get it otherwise (yes by loot), is the item mendatory to some build,…
A very good point is that crafted item are not mendatory for build in LE.
A good item without perfect T20 is enought to go end-game (2T5 + T2-3 affix)
Now the question is when you need to get full T20 and how hard it’s to go there.
Knowing that trade and loot is here too. (trade will be )
During search for base item to good base item and craft component, you level up and get loot.
This sytem feel good to me.
In GD always kill the same boss during one week to get a mendatory item for a build is not fun.
Lossing an item in crafting is no worry for me in LE because fibnding one is not a problem. In LE you will craft often and failed often if you want the perfection.
So for guy, far from perfect gear it’s easy to get better gear, and for guy with near perfect gear it’s long to get better -> perfect
Only matterial goods and no RNG, make craft = intensive farm
Like all the rest: gold for gamble base item / loot / xp
RNG is still in gamble, but remove RNG feel boring, all left is farm. And the frequency of crafting will drop by a lot.
So you will get craft only after intensive farming with garanty result once every day or week depending on how much you play.
As I can’t play as often as before, I like to get a little session of crafting after my game session when I can play and not only farm.
Yes, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I kinda like the idea of different ways to get the items you want with different “costs”. Farming for gear from mobs is RNG-dependent, gambling has some RNG but it’s main cost is gold, so why not have crafting without RNG but higher materials costs? Plus, when trade you’d be able to trade for stuff (materials & the bases to craft on) as an alternate source. And you’d still have RNG involved in getting the materials to craft with in the first place (getting the shards as drops from mobs, or from shattered items).
I did say that is bad. It is just different.
As I said the main difference is the frequency of crafting and the garanty result.
To not have garanty result add excitement for me. I understand that it could be frustrating.
To be able the craft often, you need to make craft fun, and gamble with calculated risk feel fun to me.
As (now) casual gamer, get 1 of 100 necessary item for my craft at the end of my gaming session is less fun than try (and lose) 2 or 3 times at crafting.
That the way of crafting in GD, and I just cheat because I know that as casual I will never get the item that I need for my build (in GD, some item are mendatory to some build).
I’m with @chocho32 on this one. I’ve stated this before too. Completely deterministic crafting kills any joy or surprise in getting that top tier item.
I did already make a suggestion towards this end, of not having items be destroyed but instead having a hard cap of how much you can craft them, I’ll repeat it here:
"You can do something like this without needing to destroy items.
You could purely limit the number of crafts onto an item to a flat number, meaning the higher tier bases mean more than the white or lower tier bases. Drops of good bases would likely be prized over good crafts that way, but still isn’t a bad idea.
Or, even more intricately and somewhat keeping the current system, you could have instability stay in but have it be out of a maximum instability on said item, meaning luck with the random amount of instability applied to the item needs to be high. If every craft gave 5-10 instability, and you have a limit of 100 instability on an item, you might be able to craft the full 20 times (on a white base) at 5 instability, or at worst you get 10 crafts at 10 instability.
It would mean there was luck involved (random instability values) and skill involved (using the right glyphs, etc, to be able to craft more onto the item) and no risk of losing your item completely. That way you still take risks but you don’t brick the item completely. That would keep RNG involved, and keep well made items and/or good bases worth something on the market (when it’s implemented)."
I still feel like a system like this would largely avoid the issues most players are facing, without removing the limitations on getting perfect items. You don’t have to have the items be destroyed to limit perfect items, just have other limitations instead. Destruction of your item or even reduction in stats may be a limitation, but it is unnecessary and a rather over the top/destructive method of limitation, and is by far and large not the only way to do it. At least with non-destructive or non-loss oriented limitations you could still keep a feeling of progress, even if it’s only a small amount sometimes.
Common dude, you’re better than shitty intelligence insulting. It doesn’t make you look smarter, just like an arrogant jerk. If you are not an arrogant jerk, and don’t want to be seen as one, maybe rethink your reply.
Just because you get a buzz from the randomness doesn’t mean everyone else does.
Randomness in crafting can be done without bricking your gear(PoE as an example, where it is a currency cost for each roll - or Chronicon where you get affixes by repeatedly rerolling, using currency each time until you finally have the ones you want) What both these games have in common is that the randomness is framed as “your chance to get something awesome”(outside of very specific, high risk, high reward mechanics like Vaal orbs, which are completely optional).
The only randomness in the crafting system here is a negative one, as it is framed as “the chance to fail/brick” where the win is a single affix tier. It is not even remotely like PoE randomness where you can just keep trying, if you fail once here you need to move on to a new piece of gear.
They could remove the fracture but keep in the loss of a shard(and an increase in instability) on a fail and the psychological effect of the system would be flipped on its head, but instead our items get bricked.
) and you are not required to find a perfect base with perfect affixes/suffixes that can be used for crafting as you will be able to get one on the baazar. The premise is that even If you cannot drop the base you want, you will most likely drop other items that fit other classes and sell that for profit on the aforementioned baazar and spend the gold on the items you want. You know how the market works (supply vs demand), so you can expect meta build bases to have insane prices and off meta bases to be dirt cheap etc.
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