Yes, good video, well worth watching - I have seen some of this guy’s other works too.
13:30 onwards has some really good info.
Quote @ 15:00
“Unfortunately though, humans are just really bad at understanding odds.”
Good video… Thanks for including it.
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This is exactly what Rosencrantz told Guildenstern.
This is Derren Brown flipping 10 heads in a row.
Watch from 1:10.
Also, it is why so many people (incorrectly) stick with their 1st pick in the Monty Hall Problem - we humans don’t understand probability very well and our cognitive bias takes over.
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My GCSE maths teacher “forced” us to watch that film…
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“Forced?” Oh, you science-types. 
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We didn’t struggle, we were lazy ****ers back then.
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I personally think that it is rightly so, and that it is a built-in survival trait.
People aversion towards odds to me seem to be part of the wide risk aversion that we have and helps us to succeed,
The fact that it is in a lot of us people indicates that it is spread since ancestral times, and that individuals who did not care about bad odds/were too reckless simply failed too often than necessary.
I’d like to point out how statistics work fine with industry, machines and mass production, but do not seem to be working well if applied inversely with players rewards.
If some simple stuff like 80-20 odds can make us deeply unconfortable, why or how much should we rely on it? Especially in a game?
I am totally out of this discussion at this point, but i did watch a very cool video from Michael from Vsauce in one of his secondary channels, D!NG, about the Monty Hall Problem.
VERY informative.
After popular demand, brought to you by curious Llama8: The Monty Hall Problem - YouTube
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Sharing, is caring…
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That’s one of my favorite gaming randomness videos.
I can’t remember exactly what it was but there is a GDC talk (or something like it) somewhere out there where the guy talks about being tasked to create a random system and then repeatedly asked to make changes to it because it doesn’t feel random yet. When he’s done, he has a nowhere near random system but feels very random.
All I can really say right now about crafting in general is that it’s not even in it’s final form. We have systems planned to incorporate still. We’ve just prioritized other things for a few patches. And as always, we will continue to listen to feedback and update the game going forward.
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Music to the ears 
So what I am seeing is If I have 100 Items, and on each item I have an 86% chance to increase said stat, (stat doesn’t matter) and I get 50% of them to increase the stat, then I am wrong? 100 items and 86% chance to upgrade a stat, and your fine with them upgrading 1/2 of the time? I am not say thing should be 86% all the time, but they should be closer to 86% than 50%. I mean if thats what you’re saying, then this game is gonna die even before it gets out the gates. I would think you people would want more people to play this game, especially with multiplayer coming out soon. But that wont happen with you white knights defending this RNG. I have been streaming and have had people watch me fail with 86% chance to upgrade items, multiply times in a row, and they chose not to play because to them it seemed ridiculous. Which I agree with. You can make me the martyr but this is coming from people who wanna play this game. I am just trying to help.
You’re not helping when you exaggerate. Are you going to tell us all 100 items showed 86%? The percent chance to succeed is only for THAT specific scenario with the instability and the tier of the affix you’re upgrading. When it says 86%, it means 86% for that ONE craft. It doesn’t mean 86% for everything. I’m sure you understand that, but I’m bringing it up because you’re taking that scenario and applying it across the board.
Does the crafting system have issues? Damn right it does. Provide feedback without being a dramatic martyr acting as if your holy opinion is being defiled by white knights who will defend the game at all costs. No one is doing that. Learn that the world doesn’t revolve around you. Maybe, just maybe you’re wrong when you assert that the game is lying to you about 86% success rate when you don’t have the data to back it up. If you want to say it feels bad then that’s fine. No one can quantify feelings. But don’t try to quantify your feelings with inaccurate numbers.
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So what you your saying is if I have 100 items with an 86% chance to upgrade, and it doesn’t, thats ok? Yes I made sure that the 100 items i had an 86% chance to upgrade. which they didn’t I also had deveopler say that they had this happen on this post. Which shouldn’t happen. I understand you don’t understand how probiablity works, but if I have 100 items that have a 86% chance to upgrade, and only 50% of them upgrade then yes I have a problem, my post was to let them know that I THINK they are wrong on this. Just because you don’t believe me does’nt make me wrong. I am trying to help them on this game, yet you fucking white knights, wanna crucifix me because I have a different view than you. You know what, fine, keep this game how you want it to be. I will just watch it fail because of you people that dont understand how game logic works.
GD is one of the most popular ARPGs on the market. You know why? Because they don’t have RNG on RNG on RNG. They are litterly betting you guys by thousands of people because of this. PLease change it.
I gets old being right all the time
Yeah you don’t know how probability works. You said you stream right? Make a video with all 100 items that shows 86% success rate and show us the pass/fail. I’ll be waiting. Do it 200 times. Perhaps a 1000 times. But then again you wouldn’t come close to replicating what the developers did testing the chances out with great numbers.
I was once like you who thought my logic was flawless and the people who don’t understand or agree with me are obviously wrong and ignorant. I was 12 years old at that time. I’ve since learned that I can indeed be wrong and it helps to understand what others are saying. I pray that you overcome your ignorance and see the light. Sincerely.
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So If I show you that with the 100 items at 86% to not fail, and I get 50% of them to fail, what are you gonna say then? Gonna change what you just said now? I get it it if I were to do 1000+ that it maybe better, guess what I don’t have that much time to play the game. So what youre saying is it should matter on how long you play the game, even though WE paid the same amount of money for the game?
Yes please do so. Show one by one that the item says “86%” and count the success and fails. I’ll be waiting. I’ll eat my words if it comes out to 50%.
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