3% fracture chance is exactly the same as 97% chance to not fracture.
I’ve never encountered an odd behaviour. If you think there’s something wrong with the system I’d suggest to create some kind of crafting diary. If you have fractured roughly 90 items of 100 that had a 90% chance of success there might be something wrong.
On my end its definitely not reverse to the chances displayed. So this would be a phenomenon that only appears on certain clients and is not a global bug in the system.